The Pacific Is Heading Toward a Record-Strength El Niño, but Its Impacts on France’s Winter Will Be Limited

The waters of the equatorial Pacific are reaching heat levels rarely seen since 1950. The World Meteorological Organization anticipates an El Niño episode of historic intensity, with a peak expected around December. Its consequences will affect several continents, as in the case of the Amazon’s historic drought.

The WMO forecasts an average anomaly of +3.7 °C in the Niño 3.4 region between October and December 2026

On October 8, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published an unequivocal seasonal update. It anticipates an average anomaly of around +3.7 °C in the Niño 3.4 region, at the heart of the equatorial Pacific, for October–December. The previous seasonal record, set during the 2015‑2016 event, was about +2.6 °C.

Recent measurements align with this trajectory, following oceanic records already noted in spring. Thus, the weekly index tracked by NOAA reached +3.3 °C in early October, matching the highest level of this series. However, the seasonal value of +3.7 °C remains a forecast and not an already observed record.

NOAA puts the probability at 83% that the episode will be stronger than any observed since 1950

Meanwhile, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center published its own assessment on the same day. It estimates an 83% probability that the October–December episode will exceed all El Niños observed since 1950, according to a relative index called RONI. This probability reaches 54% for September–November and 70% for November–January, placing the peak toward the end of the year.

Furthermore, the WMO regards the persistence of the phenomenon through February 2027 as nearly certain. Nevertheless, the figures require caution, as values differ markedly depending on the index used. The official RONI remained close to +1.7 °C for July–September, and NOAA’s next update is expected on November 12.

Excessive rainfall in East Africa, drought in South Asia, El Niño disrupts precipitation patterns

El Niño never stays confined to the Pacific. In fact, the warming of surface waters alters tropical atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall zones on a global scale. Strong episodes are often accompanied by excess rains in the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, or California.

Conversely, the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, Australia, Central America, and the Caribbean face an elevated risk of drought. As a result, harvests, access to water, and public health can be affected in many countries. However, the WMO emphasizes that the strength of an episode does not by itself determine the severity of local impacts.

In France, El Niño’s influence remains weak compared to climate change, according to Météo-France

For Europe, the link with El Niño is much more tenuous. Météo-France notes that its influence, a bit more pronounced in winter, remains far smaller than the impact of climate change on French temperatures. Thus, a record El Niño does not enable predicting a particularly cold or warm winter in France.

Nevertheless, the event will weigh on global temperature. The years that follow a powerful El Niño tend to rank among the hottest ever recorded, as in 2016 and 2024. Consequently, 2027 could, in turn, approach world heat records.