Earth Is Warming Twice as Fast as It Did in Previous Decades

An analysis of a large dataset indicates a significant acceleration in the rate of warming of our planet, raising concerns about the imminent crossing of climate tipping points.

A Clear Intensification

Before 2014, the Earth warmed at about 0.18 °C per decade, but the new study, published in the journal Geophysical Research Letters, shows that this rate has reached 0.36 °C over the last decade. According to its authors, if global warming continues at this pace, we could surpass the critical threshold of a 1.5 °C increase above pre-industrial levels, as set by the Paris Agreement, as early as 2028.

“Every tenth of a degree of additional warming fuels extreme weather events and worsens impacts on ecosystems,” notes Stefan Rahmstorf of the University of Potsdam. “With the exception of the United States, the world as a whole is trying to curb global warming, making its acceleration all the more worrying.”

After a sequence of record heat years, climate scientists began debating the influence of natural fluctuations, such as El Niño in 2023 and 2024, on this trend. Based on five different data sets and also accounting for the effects of volcanic eruptions and solar activity peaks, the work by Rahmstorf and his colleagues is among the first to reveal a statistically significant acceleration due to climate change, with a 98% confidence level.

Since 2014, the planet has been warming by about 0.36°C per decade, according to an analysis of five temperature datasets, raising fears that climate tipping points could be crossed earlier than expected https://t.co/AxQS9vR9DQ

— New Scientist (@newscientist) March 9, 2026

An analysis by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts even suggests that the 1.5 °C increase, linked to the collapse of coral reefs, the dieback of the Amazon rainforest, as well as the irreversible melting of Greenland’s ice sheet and West Antarctica, could be temporarily breached this year.

The Role of Aerosols

Some scientists attribute the recent acceleration of climate warming to the sharp drop in atmospheric levels of sulfur dioxide from maritime transport since 2020. Although harmful to health, this pollutant reflected part of the incoming solar radiation. Its rapid decline could thus explain the observed “jump.”

As future aerosol reductions are expected to be more gradual, Rahmstorf does not rule out that the rate of warming could stabilize over the next decade.

Earlier this year, researchers had specifically looked into the fate of the planet’s glaciers by 2100.