Climate Change: Already Fragile, the Amazon on Track for Historic Drought

The emergence of an El Niño of unprecedented magnitude in the Pacific Ocean is raising fears of severe droughts and devastating wildfires in the Amazon, which is already near a climate tipping point.

On the Brink

The El Niño phenomenon is defined by abnormally warm surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, linked to a weakening of winds along the equator. Such anomalies disrupt global weather patterns, notably bringing drier conditions to the eastern shores of South America.

Recent measurements indicate that the ongoing episode could become the most intense in modern history, with dramatic consequences for the Amazon region.

Often described as the lungs of the planet, the Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in capturing carbon dioxide and hosting a unique biodiversity. Under the influence of climate change, it has endured severe droughts over the last decade. According to Oxford University, between 2015 and 2016, the massive fires sparked by an extraordinary El Niño destroyed about 2.5 billion plants and released around 495 million tonnes of CO2 into the atmosphere.

The El Niño phase now under way will be the most damaging on record for the Amazon, scientists warn, raising the risk of catastrophic wildfires https://t.co/311byBjuve

— New Scientist (@newscientist) September 7, 2026

As Tim Li, of the University of Hawaii, notes, these repeated, increasingly severe waves are inexorably pushing the region toward a climate tipping point, where lush tropical ecosystems would collapse and give way to savanna-like environments.

Vicious Circle

Since June, rainfall across the Amazon has been unusually sparse, even though the El Niño phase was still in its early stages. “The rainfall anomaly for the summer of 2026 is already far more pronounced than during any other major episode,” Li notes.

New projections suggest that this extreme rainfall anomaly will continue to intensify through January, in parallel with rising atmospheric temperatures.

“Air temperatures are already well above normal in the Amazon, and when this is combined with drought, a vicious circle is created,” Li explains. “A sharp drop in rainfall lowers humidity and evaporation, which in turn drives the mercury higher.”

Years ago, researchers for the first time measured the height of the largest tree in the Amazon, reaching 88.5 meters.