Two Major Hurricanes and a Storm Follow in the Pacific, Fueled by an Exceptional El Niño

Three tropical cyclones nearly in a row across the Pacific, including a Category 5 hurricane: the scene resembles a catastrophe scenario. Yet behind this spectacular sequence lies a real climate driver, El Niño, which could reach historic intensity in 2026.

In a matter of days, the Pacific witnessed three powerful cyclones advancing almost in tandem

On September 2, satellite footage looked almost surreal. Lowell had just reached Category 5, with winds approaching 260 km/h. Karina was also at major hurricane strength. Further east, Marie rapidly intensified offshore of Mexico.

A few hours later, Marie crossed the hurricane threshold as well. For a brief moment, three organized cyclones occupied the eastern and central Pacific simultaneously. The National Hurricane Center often tracks multiple systems. Such a sequence remains rare enough to capture the attention of climatologists.

Beneath the cyclones, a vast heat reservoir turns the ocean into fuel

A tropical cyclone does not operate like a car. Yet the fuel analogy remains apt. To intensify, it draws its energy from the warmth of the ocean. When the water is sufficiently warm, the vapor feeds the thunderstorms around its core. Favorable upper-level winds also help organize it.

This year, an additional actor disrupts the game: El Niño is strengthening in the equatorial Pacific. The phenomenon arises from interactions between winds, the ocean, and the atmosphere. Abnormally warm waters then extend toward the central and eastern Pacific. The global atmospheric circulation is gradually reshaped as a result.

NOAA observations show an ocean and atmosphere already tightly linked. Tropical rainfall patterns have shifted. The characteristic atmospheric indices have also changed. Models still project further intensification through the end of 2026. The phenomenon observed in September could thus be only a stage.

Lowell reminds that a distant cyclone can suddenly become a very real threat

At the start of September, Lowell appeared likely to stay fairly far from Hawaii. Its direct impacts seemed limited. What followed highlighted a fundamental rule of tropical weather: trajectories can change. On September 7, the hurricane finally passed near the archipelago, bringing strong winds, heavy rains, and dangerous seas.

In Lihue, the National Weather Service recorded gusts of around 135 km/h. An elevated site on Kauai surpassed 145 km/h. Forecasts also called for hundreds of millimeters of rainfall in places. Even without a frontal impact, a major cyclone can disrupt life on an archipelago.

The 69% figure explains why this El Niño is being watched like never before

The most striking figure, however, does not concern any cyclone. According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the probability reaches 69% that El Niño will exceed, between October and December, the episodes measured since 1950 using the RONI indicator. The chance of a “very strong” event even exceeds 90%.

That does not mean El Niño directly “manufactures” every hurricane. The mechanics of cyclones remain complex. They depend on sea-surface temperature, humidity, and wind shear. Atmospheric disturbances also play a role. A warmer Pacific, however, can provide more energy to systems that are already favored.

One more question remains towering. Global warming raises the average ocean temperature. El Niño, in turn, redistributes a large amount of heat. When these two influences coincide, how far can extremes go? The coming months could offer part of the answer, playing out in real time.