{"id":4157,"date":"2026-11-12T04:26:11","date_gmt":"2026-11-12T04:26:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/polar-vortex-wobbles-two-weeks-ahead-of-record-temps-frances-weather-impact-remains-uncertain\/"},"modified":"2026-11-12T04:26:13","modified_gmt":"2026-11-12T04:26:13","slug":"polar-vortex-wobbles-two-weeks-ahead-of-record-temps-frances-weather-impact-remains-uncertain","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/polar-vortex-wobbles-two-weeks-ahead-of-record-temps-frances-weather-impact-remains-uncertain\/","title":{"rendered":"Polar Vortex Wobbles Two Weeks Ahead of Record Temps, France’s Weather Impact Remains Uncertain"},"content":{"rendered":"

Over the Arctic, the winds in the stratosphere collapsed within a few days at the end of October 2026. Models forecast a possible reversal around November 10, which would represent the earliest major stratospheric warming ever recorded. Yet we must understand what this criterion measures and why a cold spell in France is not automatic.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

The wind measured at 60\u00b0N and 10 hPa fell from 22 to 5 meters per second between October 25 and November 2<\/h2>\n

The polar stratospheric vortex is a ring of westerly winds that circles the pole in the stratosphere, around 30 kilometers above the surface. It normally strengthens in autumn, when the polar night<\/strong> cools the Arctic. Therefore, its abrupt weakening comes as a surprise.<\/p>\n

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According to the NASA Ozone Watch<\/strong> series, the mean wind at 60\u00b0N was 22.13 m\/s on October 25 and 5.44 m\/s on November 2. The average for that date is around 25.6 m\/s, and the previous minimum was 13.7 m\/s. Consequently, the vortex is already outside any known reference<\/strong> for the season.<\/p>\n

On November 4, the Met Office<\/strong> described an elongated vortex, disrupted by waves coming from two opposite directions. This configuration, termed \u201cWave 2<\/strong>,\u201d favors a separation into two lobes<\/strong>. Simultaneously, the stratosphere warms above the pole.<\/p>\n

An inversion around November 10 would surpass the late-November episodes of 1958 and 1968 recorded by NOAA<\/h2>\n

A sudden stratospheric warming becomes \u201cmajor\u201d when the mean wind at 60\u00b0N shifts from west to east. Yet, several members of the ensemble from the ECMWF<\/strong> (the CEPMMT) foresee this reversal between November 9 and 11. The Met Office, however, regards it as weak and brief, with no certainty that it will occur.<\/p>\n

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The NOAA compendium, which covers reanalyses dating back to the late 1950s, places the earliest episodes on November 30, 1958<\/strong> and between November 27\u201329, 1968<\/strong>. From there, a confirmed inversion by mid-November would gain more than two weeks. However, this record only applies to that database, updated through 2023.<\/p>\n

The NOAA CPC labeled the phenomenon as a \u201crare<\/strong>\u201d disturbance on October 30. It also anticipated a negative Arctic Oscillation<\/strong>, a sign of weakened surface west-to-east flow, with possible effects lasting about two months.<\/p>\n

The possible descent of the anomaly to the surface would take two to six weeks, with no guaranteed cold spell or snowfall<\/h2>\n

Such warming affects daily weather only if the anomaly descends into the troposphere. According to the Met Office, this coupling generally develops over two to six weeks<\/strong>, and it does not occur with every episode. Thus, the first potential effects would not appear before late November or December.<\/p>\n

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When the coupling works, the jet stream slows and becomes more wavy. Arctic air can then descend into North America, Europe, or Siberia, depending on the position of the lobes.<\/p>\n

In the face of a powerful El Ni\u00f1o, the seasonal forecast keeps a milder winter as the main scenario<\/h2>\n

The vortex is not the only factor guiding the season. Indeed, the CPC had given on October 8 more than an 83% chance of a strong to very strong El Ni\u00f1o for January\u2013March 2027. With the Indian Ocean Dipole, it weighs on large-scale circulations.<\/p>\n

France\u2019s meteorological service favored a November\u2013January quarter milder than normal, without ruling out cold spells. No organization cited anticipates a broad-based cold spell across Europe. Ultimately, mid-November will indicate whether the inversion is confirmed and whether the lower atmosphere takes over.<\/p>\n

Also read<\/span> By night, the smoke from fires continues to evolve, and humidity in the air decides whether it browns or fragments<\/span><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4158,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1880,341,235,644,259,2231,2709,2710,2707,910,2004,2708],"class_list":["post-4157","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-ahead","tag-frances","tag-impact","tag-polar","tag-record","tag-remains","tag-temps","tag-uncertain","tag-vortex","tag-weather","tag-weeks","tag-wobbles","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4157","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4157"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4157\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4159,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4157\/revisions\/4159"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4158"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4157"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4157"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4157"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}