{"id":4037,"date":"2026-11-02T22:25:09","date_gmt":"2026-11-02T22:25:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/the-pacific-is-heading-toward-a-record-strength-el-nino-but-its-impacts-on-frances-winter-will-be-limited\/"},"modified":"2026-11-02T22:25:10","modified_gmt":"2026-11-02T22:25:10","slug":"the-pacific-is-heading-toward-a-record-strength-el-nino-but-its-impacts-on-frances-winter-will-be-limited","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/the-pacific-is-heading-toward-a-record-strength-el-nino-but-its-impacts-on-frances-winter-will-be-limited\/","title":{"rendered":"The Pacific Is Heading Toward a Record-Strength El Ni\u00f1o, but Its Impacts on France’s Winter Will Be Limited"},"content":{"rendered":"

The waters of the equatorial Pacific are reaching heat levels rarely seen since 1950. The World Meteorological Organization anticipates an El Ni\u00f1o episode of historic intensity, with a peak expected around December. Its consequences will affect several continents, as in the case of the Amazon\u2019s historic drought.<\/p>\n

<\/figure>\n

The WMO forecasts an average anomaly of +3.7 \u00b0C in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region between October and December 2026<\/h2>\n

On October 8, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) published an unequivocal seasonal update. It anticipates an average anomaly of around +3.7 \u00b0C in the Ni\u00f1o 3.4 region, at the heart of the equatorial Pacific, for October\u2013December. The previous seasonal record, set during the 2015\u20112016 event, was about +2.6 \u00b0C.<\/p>\n

Read also<\/span> The Indian Ocean Dipole shifts into a positive phase, a signal that weighs on European winter without guaranteeing anything<\/span><\/section>\n

Recent measurements align with this trajectory, following oceanic records already noted in spring. Thus, the weekly index tracked by NOAA reached +3.3 \u00b0C in early October, matching the highest level of this series. However, the seasonal value of +3.7 \u00b0C remains a forecast and not an already observed record.<\/p>\n

NOAA puts the probability at 83% that the episode will be stronger than any observed since 1950<\/h2>\n

Meanwhile, NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center published its own assessment on the same day. It estimates an 83% probability that the October\u2013December episode will exceed all El Ni\u00f1os observed since 1950, according to a relative index called RONI. This probability reaches 54% for September\u2013November and 70% for November\u2013January, placing the peak toward the end of the year.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, the WMO regards the persistence of the phenomenon through February 2027 as nearly certain. Nevertheless, the figures require caution, as values differ markedly depending on the index used. The official RONI remained close to +1.7 \u00b0C for July\u2013September, and NOAA\u2019s next update is expected on November 12.<\/p>\n

Read also<\/span> Climate: this El Ni\u00f1o is so extreme it changes the color of the oceans<\/span><\/section>\n

Excessive rainfall in East Africa, drought in South Asia, El Ni\u00f1o disrupts precipitation patterns<\/h2>\n

El Ni\u00f1o never stays confined to the Pacific. In fact, the warming of surface waters alters tropical atmospheric circulation, shifting rainfall zones on a global scale. Strong episodes are often accompanied by excess rains in the Horn of Africa, parts of Central Asia, or California.<\/p>\n

Conversely, the Indian subcontinent, Indonesia, Australia, Central America, and the Caribbean face an elevated risk of drought. As a result, harvests, access to water, and public health can be affected in many countries. However, the WMO emphasizes that the strength of an episode does not by itself determine the severity of local impacts.<\/p>\n

In France, El Ni\u00f1o\u2019s influence remains weak compared to climate change, according to M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France<\/h2>\n

For Europe, the link with El Ni\u00f1o is much more tenuous. M\u00e9t\u00e9o-France notes that its influence, a bit more pronounced in winter, remains far smaller than the impact of climate change on French temperatures. Thus, a record El Ni\u00f1o does not enable predicting a particularly cold or warm winter in France.<\/p>\n

Read also<\/span> 96.7 g of CO2 per kilometer: European new cars reach a new milestone in 2025<\/span><\/section>\n

Nevertheless, the event will weigh on global temperature. The years that follow a powerful El Ni\u00f1o tend to rank among the hottest ever recorded, as in 2016 and 2024. Consequently, 2027 could, in turn, approach world heat records.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4038,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[341,2643,1425,2645,1030,413,2644,195],"class_list":["post-4037","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-frances","tag-heading","tag-impacts","tag-limited","tag-nino","tag-pacific","tag-recordstrength","tag-winter","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=4037"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4039,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4037\/revisions\/4039"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/4038"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=4037"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=4037"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=4037"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}