{"id":3264,"date":"2026-09-14T09:24:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T08:24:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/two-major-hurricanes-and-a-storm-follow-in-the-pacific-fueled-by-an-exceptional-el-nino\/"},"modified":"2026-09-14T09:24:52","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T08:24:52","slug":"two-major-hurricanes-and-a-storm-follow-in-the-pacific-fueled-by-an-exceptional-el-nino","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/two-major-hurricanes-and-a-storm-follow-in-the-pacific-fueled-by-an-exceptional-el-nino\/","title":{"rendered":"Two Major Hurricanes and a Storm Follow in the Pacific, Fueled by an Exceptional El Ni\u00f1o"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Three tropical cyclones nearly in a row across the Pacific, including a Category 5 hurricane: the scene resembles a catastrophe scenario. Yet behind this spectacular sequence lies a real climate driver, El Ni\u00f1o, which could reach historic intensity in 2026.<\/strong><\/p>\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><\/figure>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">In a matter of days, the Pacific witnessed three powerful cyclones advancing almost in tandem<\/h2>\n<p>On September 2, satellite footage looked almost surreal. <strong>Lowell had just reached Category 5<\/strong>, with winds approaching 260 km\/h. Karina was also at major hurricane strength. Further east, Marie rapidly intensified offshore of Mexico.<\/p>\n<section class=\"incontent-related\"><span class=\"incontent-related__title\">Lire aussi<\/span> <span class=\"incontent-related__desc\">Des paysages agricoles mieux entretenus pourraient r\u00e9duire durablement le risque de m\u00e9gafeux en M\u00e9diterran\u00e9e<\/span><\/section>\n<p>A few hours later, Marie crossed the hurricane threshold as well. For a brief moment, <strong>three organized cyclones<\/strong> occupied the eastern and central Pacific simultaneously. The National Hurricane Center often tracks multiple systems. Such a sequence remains rare enough to capture the attention of climatologists.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Beneath the cyclones, a vast heat reservoir turns the ocean into fuel<\/h2>\n<p>A tropical cyclone does not operate like a car. Yet the fuel analogy remains apt. To intensify, it draws its energy from <strong>the warmth of the ocean<\/strong>. When the water is sufficiently warm, the vapor feeds the thunderstorms around its core. Favorable upper-level winds also help organize it.<\/p>\n<p>This year, an additional actor disrupts the game: <strong>El Ni\u00f1o is strengthening in the equatorial Pacific<\/strong>. The phenomenon arises from interactions between winds, the ocean, and the atmosphere. Abnormally warm waters then extend toward the central and eastern Pacific. The global atmospheric circulation is gradually reshaped as a result.<\/p>\n<section class=\"incontent-related\"><span class=\"incontent-related__title\">Lire aussi<\/span> <span class=\"incontent-related__desc\">Trottinette et v\u00e9lo \u00e9lectriques : ce que la loi impose vraiment en 2026<\/span><\/section>\n<p>NOAA observations show an ocean and atmosphere already tightly linked. Tropical rainfall patterns have shifted. The characteristic atmospheric indices have also changed. Models still project further intensification through the end of 2026. The phenomenon observed in September could thus be only a stage.<\/p>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Lowell reminds that a distant cyclone can suddenly become a very real threat<\/h2>\n<p>At the start of September, Lowell appeared likely to stay fairly far from Hawaii. Its direct impacts seemed limited. What followed highlighted a fundamental rule of tropical weather: <strong>trajectories can change<\/strong>. On September 7, the hurricane finally passed near the archipelago, bringing strong winds, heavy rains, and dangerous seas.<\/p>\n<p>In Lihue, the National Weather Service recorded gusts of around <strong>135 km\/h<\/strong>. An elevated site on Kauai surpassed 145 km\/h. Forecasts also called for hundreds of millimeters of rainfall in places. Even without a frontal impact, a major cyclone can disrupt life on an archipelago.<\/p>\n<section class=\"incontent-related\"><span class=\"incontent-related__title\">Lire aussi<\/span> <span class=\"incontent-related__desc\">Changement climatique : d\u00e9j\u00e0 fragilis\u00e9e, l\u2019Amazonie en route vers une s\u00e9cheresse historique<\/span><\/section>\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">The 69% figure explains why this El Ni\u00f1o is being watched like never before<\/h2>\n<p>The most striking figure, however, does not concern any cyclone. According to NOAA\u2019s Climate Prediction Center, <strong>the probability reaches 69%<\/strong> that El Ni\u00f1o will exceed, between October and December, the episodes measured since 1950 using the RONI indicator. The chance of a \u201cvery strong\u201d event even exceeds 90%.<\/p>\n<p>That does not mean El Ni\u00f1o directly \u201cmanufactures\u201d every hurricane. <strong>The mechanics of cyclones<\/strong> remain complex. They depend on sea-surface temperature, humidity, and wind shear. Atmospheric disturbances also play a role. A warmer Pacific, however, can provide more energy to systems that are already favored.<\/p>\n<p>One more question remains towering. Global warming raises the average ocean temperature. El Ni\u00f1o, in turn, redistributes a large amount of heat. When <strong>these two influences coincide<\/strong>, how far can extremes go? The coming months could offer part of the answer, playing out in real time.<\/p>\n<section class=\"incontent-related\"><span class=\"incontent-related__title\">Lire aussi<\/span> <span class=\"incontent-related__desc\">Moustique tigre : pourquoi la France est pass\u00e9e du risque import\u00e9 \u00e0 la transmission locale<\/span><\/section>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3265,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[1432,2344,2328,2343,342,1030,413,1022],"class_list":["post-3264","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news","tag-exceptional","tag-follow","tag-fueled","tag-hurricanes","tag-major","tag-nino","tag-pacific","tag-storm","generate-columns","tablet-grid-50","mobile-grid-100","grid-parent","grid-50"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3264","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3264"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3264\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3266,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3264\/revisions\/3266"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3265"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3264"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3264"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.farmersforum.ie\/trends\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3264"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}